[pzhon]

If you hedged the Mansion Steelers bet, you lost. I'd like to point out that most people who hedged did so incorrectly.

If your bankroll can't take a favorable (5% edge) coinflip for $500, even after you are handed $500 by the generous folks at Mansion, then betting about $525 to win $475 locks in a win of about $475, and may be better than not hedging at all. However, it's almost impossible for that hedge to be optimal.

Suppose you believe the game is really 50:50. Imagine you start from the position of hedging 100%, with a sure win of about $475. Reducing your hedge bet by $110 is the equivalent of betting $100 to win $110. That's a good deal for you if your bankroll is at least $4500, assuming a conservative level of risk tolerance (Kelly fraction greater than 1/4), though it might not be optimal for you. With a bankroll over $450, you can at least afford to reduce the hedge by $11, risking $10 to win $11.

The first half of the full hedge gives you 3/4 of the value, while the last half gives you 1/4 of the value. So, in some sense, the last half is 3 times as expensive as the first half. If you weren't sure whether to hedge, it was probably optimal for you not to hedge anywhere close to 100%, since the last half of the hedge should have been a bad deal for you.

That said, the difference isn't huge. On average, the mistake from hedging too much costs less than the juice on the entire hedge, about $50, and for most people it would be significantly less.