[playersare]

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Any value in buying a point to 14/14.5 and then middling when it falls to, say, 12 would you say?

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the best +14 I see on my board is -115 (and going fast), which is marginally playable if you can get a side or middle with very little juice on the other end. right now there's a pinnacle -13.5+102 at pinnacle, so you'd be paying half of 13c to try and win 100c if the steelers win by exactly 14, which probably falls about 6% of the time. that's about a breakeven play in the long run, just bear in mind that you will NOT make money the other 94% of games that do not hit 14.

adding the 13 would add another 2% to the push value, but the 12 is worth almost nothing in the NFL. unless you think it's going to drop down to 10, there's not a whole lot of remaining value in taking any more lead money on the Lions.

what you theorized in your OP is correct, but the market already reacted to this at the beginning of the week and everything is pretty much priced in at this point.

I would look at some of these other games that haven't moved much so far and could break on some later developments:
Bengals vs. Chiefs
Redskins vs. Eagles
Rams vs. Cowboys