[Mitke]

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Well, first of all it indeed doesn't matter all that much. However, pot is now 7BB (correct?). So if he just folds 14% that bet is fine. Second, if he calls, we still have decent equity, same goes if he raises.
Third, just for the off-chance that he's drawing too, I'm keeping the lead because in those cases, my bluff beats his bluff.

Or in short: Given our hand/draw, a raise (worst case) doesn't really hurt us all that much, while a bet has some potential benefits to it.

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Agreed, these are all perfectly valid reasons to lead the turn. I'm still not convinced it's a better option than c/c turn. Like you point out, I don't think betting out is a particularly costly option either.

To see which one would be the better option we'd have to guesstimate how often villain folds his hand either on the turn or river (if we 3-barrel) or we c/c the river to induce him to bluff the river with a worse draw and he actually has a draw, and how much action he gives if he was on a draw and we both hit.

I'm with Ozi in estimating our fold equity to be minuscule on the turn and that the possibility of a raise (which would cost us ~0.75BB more to draw) to be high enough to offset the potential benefit of a fold or beating his bluff with out own.

These possibilities are matters of opinion so not much point arguing them further, IMHO (and that's a long argument doing just that, I know.. ).


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What I think is a lot more interesting is whether to cap the flop if we know that villain will bet any turn for us if we just call is really worth it. If UTG is indeed calling the cap we're making 2/6 or so of a SB from that cap in immediate expectation, right? If UTG is folding, we're contributing 50% for our ~50% equity...

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Harv and Aaron & Co discussed this a bit earlier in the thread.

I really can't tell personally. I do however think that capping the flop disguises our hand better for the turn than a call, which also can work in favor of our implied odds.