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OK, thanks for the feedback. That's encouraging, even after losing both morning games. I'm also on:

Iowa State vs. Toledo +3.5 (Risk 0.59u to win 0.59u)
Iowa State vs. Toledo +139 (Risk 0.91u to win 1.26u)

Only got part of my initial Matchbook offer matched, so when the line moved I finished up on the moneyline. Anyway, I really like Toledo here. They were ranked much higher going into the season by Phil Steele (#60 vs. #105), and the only reason that Iowa State's favored is due to their rivalry win last week over Iowa. However, that game has historically yielded strange results. In the other two games, Iowa State lost to Kent State by 9 (a team very comparable to Toledo) and lost to I-AA Northern Iowa in a game that was somewhat fluky due to Iowa State badly losing the turnover battle.

Meanwhile, Toledo is a team that plays much, much better at home than on the road. They weren't good enough to play with Purdue anywhere, but probably would have done much better against Central Michigan and Kansas if they could have played them in the Glass Bowl. Over the last 7 years, Toledo is 36-4 at home and 21-20 on the road including a 4-2/1-5 split last year. This seems to be underaccounted for too as Toledo is 24-10 ATS at home and 16-22-3 on the road over the same period.

Also, Toledo has more starters back than Iowa State from a team that took the Cyclones to 3OT in Ames last year. Add in a letdown factor from ISU's big win over Iowa last week (worth at least a FG IMO), and I really think the wrong team's getting the points here.

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Easy win. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

Couldn't actually watch the game, but I was following on GameCast and Toledo got two TDs in the last 5:30 and then blocked an Iowa State FG with 0:15 to win by 1.