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Old 07-15-2006, 05:50 PM
Erik W Erik W is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2004
Location: Linköping
Posts: 582
Default Re: a few interesting river stats

If we an equally distribution(don't know at all if true) of hands between 100%(nut hands) and 55% winning hands that gives us a number of (100+55)/2 = 77.5 which seems to be where everyone is.

If we add the pure bluffs the number should go south.
If the games are real agressive and you have to pay off the number should go up somewhat.

Mine is by the way 76.98.

The conclustion to draw is that a number over 77.5 should value bet some more and if you are 79 or more you value bet way too few times.

With the bluffing I think the number you want to achieve should be some lower than 77 but how much I have no idea.

Anyone have anything to add to this?
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