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Old 11-29-2007, 11:24 AM
DVaut1 DVaut1 is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Ann Arbor, MI
Posts: 4,751
Default Re: Hillary\'s poll numbers tanking...

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It isn't a flaw, it is by design. I would guess that most years, it works fine.

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But this year, some completely unique thing that completely immeasurable right now is going to turn the polls on their head and prove you right after all?

I love it. You actually went and did some research into how pollsters utilize 'likely voter' metrics and why they're accurate, concluded yourself that "most years it works fine", THEN you say "oh well, it usually works, but this year it's going to be all wrong anyway".

A+ cognitive dissonance sir. A+

Anyway, for those looking for empirical evidence that demonstrates why pollsters are pretty accurate, you'll want to start here here.

For instance:



Final results: Bush 48%, Gore 48%, Nader 3%

But yeah, these guys were WAY off.

Even if you want to harp on the few percentage points the polling averages were off, it's rather easily explainable by Bluementhal:

"Most of the polls were conducted over the final weekend, although a few were done as much as a week before the election. Over the final weekend, four of the five daily tracking surveys charted by the Polling Report (Gallup, Zogby, Battleground and TIPP) showed Gore gaining ground. Second, most of the surveys gave Ralph Nader more support (4% on average) than he received on Election Day (2.7%). Presumably, some Nader supporters switched to Gore at the last moment when the final polls showed that Gore closing on Bush."

I suppose I shouldn't even sarcastically beat the "polls are inaccurate" drum, since you've conceded that "most years it works fine". At this point, you've just embraced the notion that while polling usually works fine, this year it's going to be proven grossly inaccurate by your crackpot theories.

Like others have said, you may want to contact these pollsters and let them know of the major theoretical "Hillary Flaw" you've found. I suspect if you're demonstrably correct on election day, you'll make untold millions. Not sure why you're wasting your energy here when there's a multi-billion dollar polling industry to usurp.
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