Re: Top set should fold?
Now that I've noticed Villain's stats, I'm going to take another stab at this. First off, the preflop raise was smallish, and there were two calls in front of BB. Nevertheless, based on our 69-hand sample, he's pretty tight in to begin with.
So let's say he'll play any PP, any suited broadways, and any suited zero-gappers. That gives him 9 flush combos, and 6 reasonable set combos. Meanwhile, he might have 3-bet AhKh or AhQh preflop, but at the same time I'm not so sure we should have given Villain as tight of a suited range as I did.
Still, you have by far the better of the outs versus a flush/set range, and I'm not sure we should rule out, say, AhTs either. 75s may be a concern, but, basically, this is now looking like a slightly profitable call to me, and it helps too that Villain might not be in such a hurry to get his money in with a big flush. So while I probably didn't place enough AhXh hands in Villain's range on the flop, there's a good chance he wouldn't have open-pushed those AhXh hands on the turn, suggesting we should discount them.
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