[rzk]

yes, but even if utg is raising a draw, there are still so many factors that weaken your draw:

1. utg can still cap even his draw.
2. your outs are compromised, either because some of your outs give him a straight or a flush or because he holds one of your outs
3. if he has a draw, you have reverse implied odds agaisnt him.
4. some of your outs give him or the co a redraw to a flush or straight.
5. you might also be drawing near dead against the co if he has a monster.
6. even if you improve you might be stuck in a raising war making a showdown very expensive.
7. you only have 100 hands on utg - so your read that he's a lag is not iron clad.

overall, it feels that your hand suffers badly from rio and may be drawing dead. maybe it's a leak of mine but i still can't imagine it being a close decision.