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Old 10-22-2007, 06:06 AM
Micturition Man Micturition Man is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 805
Default Re: Wowwow... new stud structure on Stars.

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In a nutshell this makes it mandatory for BI to defend with almost any 2 low cards....

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I doubt this very much.

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Try some math.

If last to act is getting 2.5:1 on a steal he only needs it to work 28.6% of the time to show an *automatic* profit.

If BI starts with a low card up he will have 3 low cards 35% of the time, a buried big pair 3.5% of the time, and a 3-flush (without 3 low) 2.4% of the time. He will a split pair with a K-9 kicker 4.7% of the time.

(I have left out 3-straights that include high cards such as 987 and T98.)

All that adds up to 44.4% of our distribution.

So stealer is still showing an automatic profit of around $90.

(NB I am two-tabling as I write this so I could be making a heinous math error somewhere.)

So if the foregoing is true and you are not defending with a large % of your 2-low hands, then stealer should clearly raise 100%.

And if stealer is raising 100% you clearly should play all but your worst hands (and probably even them in some spots).
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