Re: What are the odds a player in top 50 in chips at WSOP wins?
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I'd go closer to 12-1. The top chip counts tend to play less than optimal poker to get where they are in a lot of cases.
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It's worth remembering that both Raymer and Gold had the chip lead very early in their winning years.
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Being a big stack creates so many +EV opportunities that clueful (Raymer) and/or aggressive players (even lagtards like Gold) have a quite significant incremental advantage. This effect may roughly offset the random luckbox donks who will crash and burn. Who knows.
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