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Old 03-25-2007, 03:02 PM
franknagaijr franknagaijr is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
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Default Re: A few PLO/8 Tournament hands

For problem 2, I was curious and took a deeper look at some scenarios that seemed reasonable.

Assumptions: Main pot = 25,969 (correct?)
Side pot = 9796 (correct?)

If facing one other ace, and enough lows that A7 cannot carry low, our EV is 14,116, or a gain to our chip stack of about about 15%, or slightly less than one M. (I used AA7J v A256 for big stack v 34KK for short stack)

If facing one other ace, and A7 could possibly hit the low, our EV is 17,488 or a 43% gain in chipstack. (I used AA7J v A38K v 24QQ for this calc)

If facing two Ace-low hands but A7 can still make a low, our EV is still positive, 14,192. (I used A38K & A299 as a smple).

I also calculated the chances of some villain hands hitting two pair or trips, and that happens less than 50% of the time, even with adding a roughly 15% chance of one of two flush draws hitting by the river.

I'm going to back-pedal on this one. +EV play even in a couple of scenarios that don't look promising, and we probably won't see better chances to put it all in.
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