[Sherman]

[ QUOTE ]
Sherman,

Nice post. I play a lot of $8 2 table satellites for tokens on tilt, and notice a lot of the bad play you talk about in your post -- basically people not realizing that despite the strength of their hand, the profitability of certain late-game situations are not worth getting involved and risking what is a comfortable stack.

Question:

Hand #4. Would this be as easy a push of the blinds covered? Obv it's different if they barely cover or if they have you 2 or 3-1.

What would their stacks have to be to make you fold? Or is this always a push regardless of stacks?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hand #4 would be kind of a tricky spot if it is folded to me. The proper play depends on estimation of your FE (i.e. how often you expect both players to fold). They both have short stacks and are probably pretty willing to put it in soon b/c we are still 5-8 people away from the bubble at this point. So they are probably calling pretty light. It is probably a fold.

If they had deeper stacks, you gain more FE b/c they have more to lose by busting, so shoving becomes more profitable. However, as their stacks increase so does the probability of you busting if you run into a big hand. There is a tough balance there b/c in satellites near bubbles you are much more risk than in a regular freezeout (i.e. it is often correct to fold in spots where your edge is small).

Sherman