Re: Did He Touch Home?
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1st and 3rd no outs is a completely different situation than the bases loaded no outs when you absolutely cannot let one run score.
You can't go for the DP because the runner on third comes home. It's better to load up the bases to AT LEAST get the force at home if not the X-2-3 double play.
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if I remember ev right it was .894 for bl and .9 for 1 and 3rd, but the difference between carroll and helton probably makes that enough to not walk him.
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Expected number of runs isn't the right metric. The right one is the probability that at least one run scores as opposed to none. I don't know off the top of my head, but I would guess it's easier to get out of the inning with the bases loaded (if that's what you're explicitly trying to do--as opposed to the middle of the game) than with first and third.
Shane
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