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Old 11-26-2007, 03:49 AM
mickb70 mickb70 is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Sydney, Australia
Posts: 59
Default Re: 50NL AKs hows my line?

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Re-raise pre-flop gets a pot size we like and we hit so our stack is going in. I like check-raise on flop and we are rarely getting called by anything we beat by leading out. Turn is not likely to hurt us in case that it gets checked all the way around.

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This is terrible advice. Nothing can hurt us? How about a J?! a Q?! both make 1 card straights. Any 9 or 10 could allow villains crappy 2nd or 3rd pair to become best as well. I bet $25 on the flop, call shove, or just shove any turn if called on the flop.

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OK I said turn is not _likely_ to hurt us which you read as nothing is going to hurt us. You've named 14 cards that _could_ hurt us. I still think one 31 out of 45 turn cards is a _likely_ outcome. Agreed?

We both agree that all our money is going in the middle by the turn. So we would bet to fold out either:

1) hands that are beating us (someone folding a set of 9s or 10s????)
2) a hand that could improve to beat us on the turn. (AQ, AJ?, AT??, QT?, JT, J9??, 89)

We might check to get a bet out of a hand we beat:

QQ,JJ,KQ,KJ?.

So in the event that players both check (lets say 80% chance) and turn card is bad (29% chance) and it has improved someone (lets say 2players/4cards 50%) then there is an 11% chance that checking is a bad line. Is there less than a 11% chance we may induce a bet from a hand we beat? Plug in any numbers you like for likelihood of checking around and arrive at the conclusion that my advice is terrible (i.e. betting is clearly better than checking)
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