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Old 07-31-2007, 05:58 PM
emerson emerson is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 818
Default Re: Fold TP Ace on 4th Broadway River To Donk?

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Not exactly the same hand, but seems close. I said call back then, but think it might be a leak.

Link

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Depends on your opponents. More players are learning that taking pot shots at scary looking boards when heads up is very profitable. And the river donk is a really cheap way to try it when that flush or straight card hits.

After reading the thread to which you linked, I think I'm going to start making more river donk bluffs when the river card is something that should look scary to top pair. It seems that lots of good players will lay down here way more frequently than is needed for the bluff to be profitable.

Now in the first hand above it would help to know what the BB calling range is because we do lose to almost anything. If he has any pocket pair TT or higher, or holds any two broadways, or simply any jack, we're beat. If that makes up more than 84% of his possible holdings we couldn't call even if he would bluff 100% of the time here. We still wouldn't win often enough for the call to be profitable.

If we have a figure on how often this guy folds his BB to a possible steal then we could figure a possible range.
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