[ QUOTE ]
OK, this hand kind of illustrates what I am talking about and what I thought Baltostar was talking about. It may also my fairly sketchy understanding of the mathematics of poker - feel free to berate me. $5r FT. Payouts $250 or so to $2k.
Let's make the following assumptions based on specific reads and generic play. UTG does not have a big hand. People are more likely to fold pf if I make it 80k to go and then shove any flop.
If, as I suspect, and please correct me if I'm wrong, shoving has a greater chip expectation but also provides greater variance, should I shove or raise?
Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Tournament
Blinds: t6000/t12000
(Ante: t1200)
7 players
Converter
Stack sizes:
UTG: t498228
UTG+1: t393075
MP1: t250460
CO: t391140
Button: t390052
SB: t80053
Hero: t187492
Pre-flop: (
7 players) Hero is BB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
UTG calls t12000 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t26400)</font>, UTG+1 calls t12000 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t38400)</font>,
2 folds, Button calls t12000 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t50400)</font>, SB calls t6000 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was t62400)</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises
[/ QUOTE ]
shoving has both greater chip expectation and lower variance imo. just raising would be higher variance because sometimes when they just call preflop you will get outflopped. 15 bbs with AK oop and a bazillion limpers.. shove.
i don't know why im in red but it's kinda cool