[eymon222]

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It's crazy how running bad skews your judgement. I was convinced that he is calling with me beat way more than 50% of the time and was going to show up with A8.

Actually, though... I feel like one of my big leaks has been making dumb big bets on the end when I think I am good/should be good but am not going to get value from a worse enough hand enough of the time to merit shoving or whatever. Is my thinking skewed by being shown the nuts so many times on the river in spots like this lately? What might I be missing in my reads in these situations? Combination of both?

Like in this situation, how are we getting to the decision to shove there being correct considering ranges, unknowns tendencies to do stupid things, etc.

Devo

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you can't be results oriented, that is a big leak in itself. now to the read he limped utg you call. what hand limp utg without (specific reads on villians playing habits) sc down to 67 88+ A8s+ A10+ KQ.
now he calls your 3/4 pot bet after the flop (K87r) you can now eliminate some of his possible holdings. 88+,65,910,A8,KQ,. another 8 comes on the turn (Filling your boat) and he calls your 3/4 pot bet again. eliminate some more holdings only because you do'nt really care if he has some of the earlier holdings. now and A falls on the river. you make a pot size bet and he minraises you. imho you have 2 holdings that beat you 88 and A8s. you have to push his minraise if he has those hands and beats your fh bad luck for you but that is the varience of the game. you will lose with fh's it's going to happen embrace the varience of the game. My game improved dramaticaly when I finally accepted the variance of the game. I stopped changing the way I played based on some of those bad beats, stopped playing weak because all I saw was the monsters that the villian could have instead of a range of hands he could have.