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Old 11-29-2007, 10:31 PM
DcifrThs DcifrThs is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Spewin them chips
Posts: 10,115
Default Re: How far will bonds go?


I'm referring to the official definition, something of which we wouldn't know for sure until a couple of years down the road (as you know). I was considering creating a post as to why I think the odds of a recession at this point are 95% (I said within the next two quarters for theatrics to be honest, but I do still believe there'sd a 50% chance of one hitting that soon).

I find it hard to believe how any rational person at this point cannot see the odds of a recession occurring over the next 12 months as being at least 50%. I'm basing my opinion on an extensive amount of research and would be willing to argue with anyone who believes the other side of the argument to be true.

Edit: As for a wager, something small and friendly would be fine (I'll make a shorter-term bet such as the Dow losing at least 20% of its value over the next 12 months). I'm currently making a big bet through my investments, so anything big would be risky.

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thats fine. i was willing to take all action against 95% chance of a recession in the next 2 quarters.

i strongly feel that we'll head towards negative growth, though may not hit it. i've done a ton of research as i'm sure you know as well and the major factors just come down to what degree spending will fall given housing price falls and to what degree housing prices fall.

exports are 12% of GDP so 50% growth there is not enough to matter more than offsetting a 6% or so fall in spending. anything more and exports will fail to compensate.

so while i know all the logic behind a recession, i don't see one happening that soon and thus will take all action against it in the next 2 quarters.

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