[You're No Daisy]

[ QUOTE ]
Correct me if I'm wrong, but the math almost definitely works out for the push. If he has AK or something absurd like AA/KK less than 65% of the time, it's +EV to push.

EV = .33*(14.65+13.15)-.67*(14.65)
EV ~ $0.21

Now, if you truly think he's got AA/KK/AK 65% of the time, a call might be the better +EV move, but if your read is total donk, he's probably only got AA/KK/AK like, 33-50% of the time. It's now an easier push than before I did the math. THX ALG 1 TCHR

[/ QUOTE ]
Here are the numbers I come up with and they are easier to understand...

Villain's VPIP is 26% so lets round down to 25% for [censored] and giggles. This means he plays any pair, any broadway, any ace down to A6, any suited ace, and any suited connectors 54s+.

On the turn we are KILLING his range.

Board: Ah 4c Kc 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 92.344% 92.34% 00.00% 10808 0.00 { 5d5s }
Hand 1: 07.656% 07.66% 00.00% 896 0.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s, A6o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

But I narrowed down his range to KQ-KT, QJ-QT (suited in clubs). As mentioned in my previous post I discounted AA-KK and AK. Now we are farther ahead of his range on the turn:

Board: Ah 4c Kc 5h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 95.868% 95.87% 00.00% 1856 0.00 { 5d5s }
Hand 1: 04.132% 04.13% 00.00% 80 0.00 { KTs+, QTs+, KTo+ }

On the river SB is toast.

AC