Re: NL$200| Does pushing have a +ev expectation here?
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Ray is tricky post-flop, I'm usually not 3-betting his UTG raising range OOP with AK.
Could you explain why you think pushing is -EV in light of the range above? I've still got 39% equity if V2 doesn't call with 1010-JJ.
In fact, against a range of QQ+,33-22,93s-92s,5c4c,32s,93o-92o,32o, which includes some frankly stupid two-pair combo's and covers ALL hands that beat or dominate me I'm still 37.5%. I'm confident I make up the rest from fold equity even against this, the most extreme and IMHO unlikely calling range.
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Im hearing some contradiciton here. How is Ray such a tricky player, when your 100% confident he will lay down Aces here? That confidence suggests to me that he plays his hands straight, and is easy to read. Not very tricky. And I think your first range was a bit loose. Second range is better, but doesnt those crazy 2 pair combos increase your equity in that second range?
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