Re: April 2007 IBM Ponder This Challenge
Hmmm... maybe your approach is right but I think the answer is wrong... we can bound the answer as follows.
Define
P1 = P(frog never passes 0)
P2 = P(frog never passes 1)
P3 = P(frog passes first 1, then 0)
Since these are mutually exclusive, we have P1+P2+P3<=1.
Also by symmetry, P1=P2.
Furthermore, P3>P1, because these two together form the event that the frog hasn't stopped at 0 when it first reaches 1, and if this happens, the frog is more likely (>50%) to eventually go back to 0 as in P3, than to never go back to 0, as in P1.
Then 1 >= P1+P2+P3 > 3 P1
P1<1/3
Hence, at the very most 1/3 of integers can be skipped.
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