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Old 08-17-2006, 12:02 AM
Joker757 Joker757 is offline
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 236
Default Re: NL$200 QQ fold ??

I think this type of hand gets to the root of onine players soley relying on the numbers to make poker decisions. Based on his numbers of 23/9 they indicate that he is a tight player but when you look at its only over 150 hands that sample size is no where near reliable enough to base a poker decision.
He could be an average player but have just been on a run of dead cards or he could be a LAG but had a few beats prior to your arrival and settled down for a hundred or so hands. These numbers are soley arbitrary in the sceme of things. You have to be able to play poker outside of these numbers if you cant then you can never succeed.

Ok off of my soap box to the hand we go,

I think your raise of $9 PF is good its 200% the pot. This is when knowing your opponent is key. What type of hands has he limped called a raise with UTG. Has he limp/folded UTG to a raise for the most part or has he limped called. What has been his tendency from your observations. These are all questions that your numbers cant answer.

The turn bet was fine but obviously the RR sucked. He didnt RR PF from UTG when you raised so you can pretty much exclude AA or KK. QQ or JJ 4 handed he is coming in raising as well as any pocket pair down to 77. The only hand I can put him on would be a set of 4's 9's and 7's he should have raised PF and calling with 97 suited 4 handed it a terrible play against 4 players no value in that hand. But I dont know how he plays and if you think he would do that then you need to add that to his possible holdings. Any holding that he should have based on his numbers he should have either RR or raised from UTG. I cant put him on a hand here and being 4 handed QQ is a monster hand. He may have something like Ad7d. Given that he now has approx $100 after the turn bet and you only have $145 you cant just call the $80 that leaves you with 65 into $270 turn pot. You are getting odds to see the hand to the end.

I would RR all in in this spot given how strange this hand played out and his possible range of holdings as such and the strength of your hand 4 handed.

This allows you to make the win in several ways:
1) he folds to RR
2) he calls and your QQ is the best hand
3) he calls with a set and you suck out on river.

Hope this helped. Would be curious to hear how the hand played out! But it is hard to tell you a good idea of what to do with out all of the previously mentioned information. I think for any future posts that information would allow you to get much better responses to any given situation.

Good Luck
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