Thread: 2 pair
View Single Post
  #4  
Old 11-16-2007, 11:40 AM
sixhigh sixhigh is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2005
Location: Highway 61
Posts: 1,778
Default Re: 2 pair

With a sc you will outflop an overpair approx. 10% of the time. The times you do outflop it you will win approx. 80% of the time. Those are some rough estimations, but def. not way off.

Say you fold every time you miss, then you are losing 4BB 90% of the time. And say you get it all in on the flop the 10% of the time you flop 2pair or better.

When the remaining stack is n BB you will win n BB 80% of the time and lose n BB 20% of the time.

So your EV overall is: 90%*(-4) + 10%*(80%*(+n) + 20%*(-n)) = 90%*(-4)+6%*(+n)

So the break even point would be n = 60.

So if he is willing to put in at least 60BB regardless of the flop texture and always holds a big pair when he raises, calling for twopair+ value becomes +ev.
Reply With Quote