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I'm surprised so many people are doubting Tito in his fight. He wins only 95% of the time??? Give me a break. 99+% of the time. The only thing Shamrock is better at is running his mouth. A more interesting wager would be to see if the fight will go past 2 minutes (It won't).

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/agreed

I'd probably hang a -1900 Ortiz line if I were booking this fight, I meant. I think at Shamrock +1650 or whatever, you'd see enough people taking the super longshot and few people loading up on Ortiz as to make some money.

In reality, as you point out, this is the closest thing to a "lock" that exists in sports betting. There is literally almost no way for Shamrock to win this fight, in reality. He can't hurt Tito standing. He certainly can't submit Ortiz. He can't take Ortiz down. Probably the only way Shamrock would possibly have to win this fight would be a very very lucky knee to Ortiz as Ortiz is shooting. And even if he stuns Tito with a big knee I'd still give Ortiz an 80% chance of recovering and winning the fight even if he's stunned and on his back.

But Tito's smarter than to put himself in that position. As with the last fight, he's not going to just shoot across the cage out of control, he's going to strike, then clench, then takedown from the clench, then walk Shammy to the fence, then come the elbows, all to avoid any miracle attempt from Shamrock.

My entire available sports betting bankroll is tied up on this fight across *ahem* various sites.
No arb hunting for me until Wednesday...

I would literally bet this line (-777ish) if the rules were such that every round of the fight were started in a wrestling Referee's position with Ortiz on the bottom.