I posted this in the Zoo yesterday:
"In this press release from October 2005, Cryptologic says that "Betfair fees have typically accounted for 5-10% of the company's revenue".
http://www.cryptologic.com/investor/...ct24_2005.html
If we say 7.5% of the revenue (middle point of guidance), and estimate that the growth in Betfair poker players is in line with the growth of Interpoker revenues (this is a conservatine assumption when the first half numbers showed a 56% revenue growth, compared with 32% casino revenue growth), then we can estimate that the Betfair situation will shave off 7.5% of the company's revenues BEFORE THE AMERICANS HAVE BEEN KICKED OUT.
Add in the fact that Ritz Club is leaving the network, which has an effect on 2% of the Cryptologic revenues, then the company will be hit with a total of around 10% less revenue before the US players have been kicked out.
http://www.cryptologic.com/investor/2006/may5_2006.html
"This decision will have no material impact on CryptoLogic's financial results as the Ritz accounts for less than two per cent of CryptoLogic's revenue."
So what effect does this have on the Cryptologic poker player base?
Well, I think it will have a large effect. Betfair has not had any casino business with Cryptologic (just poker business). Lets take a look at the numbers in 2005, when Crypto claimed that they would be hit with 5-10% less revenues due to the Betfair independence stance:
Casino revenue 2005: $53 million
Poker revenue 2005: $27 million
Total Cryptologic Group revenue: 86,3 million
Loss after Betfair exit: 7.5% of total group revenue = 6.47 million. This means that the poker division will lose ~24% of its revenues.
But Cryp has had growth in 2006 too.
Fist half numbers:
Casino $32.9 million
Poker $18.9 million
Total $57.3 million
If we say that Betfair poker player growth was in line with the total Crypto poker growth, then we can still claim that the revenues from Betfair is between 5 and 10% of Crypto total revenues (middle point 7.5%).
7.5% of 57.3 million is 4.3 million, which is 22.7% of the poker revenues in Cryptologic.
If we use 5% as is the low end of guidance from Betfair effect on revenues, the numbers will be smaller, while the 10% high guidence the effect will be over 30%.
PS. All numbers are without the American effect, which come on top of the Betfair exit.
Conclusion: Crypto will take a huge hit after the Betfair exit, with over 20% less players."
Since then, Crypto has announced that Betsafe is going from Tain to Crypto, but I dont think Betsafe have a large number of players.