View Single Post
  #6  
Old 11-23-2007, 09:06 AM
Aquadougs Aquadougs is offline
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 157
Default Re: 100NL: QQ overpair facing turn raise

I think his range at the preflop call is about:
22-77 - 80% of the time
AT-AJ, QTs, KTs, KQo, 89s-QJs - 60% of the time
Some worse and better cards than those over - 30% of the time
This depends on how often he 3bets, cause then I think his callingrange at preflop consists of fewer broadways.

His flop call could be a float attempt, since his AF is high. (He would often raise his draws and sets in this spot). But if it isnt a float attemt, i think his most probable range is cards he would potcontrol: 89, 78, (QJ sometimes), 99, TT.
I think the flop call range depends alot of how you play turn and river. If you check-fold turn alot, then Its more probable that he is trying to bluff you there now. If you secondbarrel often, then I think the flop call consists of better hands.

The thing is that i dont think he would call with a draw, so when he raises when the "straight" hits, I think his range is:
89s 2 combinations -> 1,5 effective combinations
99 3 combinations -> 3 effective combinations
TT 6 combinations -> 6 effective combinations
QT 8 combinations -> 5 effective combinations
(J9s) 2 combinations -> 1 effective combination
bluff 5 effective combinations (?)

So we have 21,5 effective combinations
Of those, i think he would fold the bluffs and the TT's which is 11 combinations if you push, but if he calls, you are WB. If we say you loose everytime he calls, you have to take down the pot 51% of the time to go breakeven. Since i think he would fold 11 of 16,5 times = 56% of the time, then i think its marginally spot to push.

What about a call?
You have 3:1 in pot odds, and are about WB/WA against his range. If you make a block bet at river, maybe he would think you were weak and raise you, so I think the best alternative would be to c/f the river. If he bets at the river, I think you could safely fold because of the action at turn. At the river I think he would valuebet his straights, half of his sets and some more combinations. That is 5+3+3 = 8 combinations. If he checks, then 3 more combinations will beat you and you will beat 10 of his combinations. So if we call the turn, we got these outcomes:

Call, Check-Bet. Prob: 8/21,5. Win: -25. EV: -9,3
Call, Check-Check-win. Prob: 10/21,5. Win: 76. EV: 35
Call, Check-Check-loose. Prob: 3/21,5. Win: -3,5

Total EV if you call turn, and c/fold river: +22,2

So, I would call turn.

I made this very simple (without draws and that), but could make that calculation if you will.
Reply With Quote