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Old 12-15-2006, 03:53 PM
Utah Utah is offline
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Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Point Break
Posts: 4,455
Default Re: Movies 12/15 to 12/18

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Line movements were very strong this morning, closing past -200 for the Eragon Over, Pursuit of Happyness Over, and Charlotte's Web Under. I can see the rationale for the Eragon and Happyness moves, but not the Charlotte one. Perhaps you think it will bomb, and that's fine, we're all just making predictions, but did I miss any news on this one, compared to the positive news that Eragon and Happyness were getting?

Got a little scared as closing approached, though, because the movement was so strong for no apparent reason, so it seemed like some people knew something I didn't. Closing line movements that big have been money lately in movie props, as the sides with odds of -200 or higher have been 5-for-5 lately, and even closing directional plays have been solid, as sides with odds of -150 or higher have won 4-for-7 that I've seen.

So that bodes well for the Eragon and Happyness Overs, and poorly for Charlotte, as it's highly expected to go Under. I went with these closing directions, and took a little more Eragon and Happyness (4* now), and hedged some Charlotte (down to 2* now).

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I think Web is an easy under but there is no reason for that line movement that I could tell. It was interesting to watch. Very early numbers look good for Eragon and Happyness and poor for Web. Of course, it is way to early to read too much into anything.

Good luck everyone. I love waiting for the numbers to come out on friday.
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