[TNixon]

This is exactly the same as a losing streak problem in HUSNGs. If I have a 60% winrate, then the probability of losing 4 games in a row is 2.56%.

But the odds of having a 4 game losing streak in a series of 100 games is *clearly* much higher than 2.56%, because the chance of having a 4 game losing streak *just in the first 4 games* is exactly 2.56%.

In fact, the odds of having a 4 game losing streak in even just 5 games is obviously higher than 2.56%, because you have two chances to lose 4 in a row, the first four, and the last four.

Replace "4 game losing streak" with "drop 20 buyins", and we have a direct correlation.

***EDIT***

The chance of having a 4 game losing streak in 5 games, losing the first 4 or the last 4, is exactly 4.09%, which is *significantly* higher than our original 2.56%, and I've only added 1 game here, to show the cumulative effect of adding to the string.