Re: Boat gets CRAI on river
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I'd actually say this is pretty ugly. I've had two occassions where I had the better boat/quads and instant pushed once I established the other guy had the top boat.
I'd fold. You're winning <1% of the time here, losing 10% and chopping the rest.
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Okay.
$137 in pot, another 102 to call. You're getting almost 1.4 to 1
According to you you lose 10%, so:
One time you lose $102.
9 times you split pot, meaning you *gain* $18.5 (that you would lose by folding)
1% of the time you win $137
so
(18.5*9) + (137/10) - 102 = +78.2
Positive EV to call here even with your pessimistic figures.
AB
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