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Old 11-07-2007, 10:02 AM
jjshabado jjshabado is offline
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Join Date: Jul 2006
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Default Re: High Stakes Poker thread (11/5 - 500k buyin - Spoilers expected)

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Can't be bothered to read the rest of the thread, got to the middle of the second page, but I just wanted to comment on the doyle vs gold hand. Some guy said 'if you're going to stack off with the 3rd nuts 400BB deep, you're probably a losing player', and I seriously LOL in your weak-tight face if you're so nitty that people always have a better hand when you get action that deep. In live games people regularly stack off with 1000BBs with one pair. I've won a 1200BB pot in live PLO for god's sake with one pair at showdown, all-in on the turn.

Secondly, regarding the specifics of the hand. It's pretty easy to discount any flush draw that includes the J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] in jamies' hand, given there's no way on earth he check-calls with a pair and a flush draw on the flop in late position. Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T x constitutes some small range of jamies hands as well - why should jamie put doyle on a flush draw if he's bet the flop? It would be a c/r for value against two pair/set etc and semibluffing should doyle have a flush. So Doyle should really be thinking that Jamie can only have one hand that beats his, the nuts, and against a spewtard like Gold (anyone who gives him one iota of poker competence, given what we've all seen, must be a losing player IMO), just shouldn't fold. The idea that he could fold any flush is absolutely laughable. Whether the best play on the turn is all-in or just call, I don't know, but I do know that I died a little inside when I saw brunson fold.

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DING DING DING

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Seriously, even if you believe Doyle shouldn't have folded do you not see that AT BEST its a very very small +EV situation.

Doyle is sitting directly to the left of Jamie Gold who is sitting directly to the left of the amateur billionaire. You don't think that maybe he was waiting for a better spot? Its early and he has the two worst players directly to his right playing very deep stacked.

Sure he could have rebought but why take the crazy variance on a barely +EV play (and I still believe its -EV but whatever) that hand when he's likely to get many more better spots. I'm sure there's tons of ballas on 2+2 that will claim they'd take a $100001 to $100000 coin flip but it seems pretty stupid to me.
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