[scott2130]

I have printed the entire thread and will try to present my thoughts clearly. I didn’t mean to attack you bravos1 and I am sorry if you took it that way. I was trying to give another point of view and at the time only you and knockonwood responded and knockonwood seemed to take your opinion when he said;

“Bravos’ point was that the guy’s range is heavily skewed i.e. 95% likely to be big PP’s …” ”You are being results orientated playing the hand any other way than what has been suggested”

Then by editing multiple posts, knockonwood gave me the impression he was back peddling not you.

This thread has expanded beyond the OP question but I am enjoying and learning from the deeper thoughts and ideas in a micro limit forum. We could go off on the most obvious possibilities for all players in the hand but I think that is taking it too far. In fact, I want to try to reduce the scope already to just Hero and the Villain. I know I opened the door to a flush draw for the 3rd player but it doesn’t matter what he had, he folded. To help put it to bed I will agree that if he had a strong FD then he would not have folded.

To answer the original question I would bet/call the turn if raised and check/call the river. If the villain didn’t raise the turn then I would bet the river for value. IMO a c/r on the turn is not a good idea because of the aggression on the flop, the possibility of facing a third bet, and the possibility of giving a free card.

Now why I gave that advice is based on my experiences and thoughts, if yours differs, great, we have a discussion. When I first read the responses they were limited to two concepts, the villain has a 7.3PFR and he raised pre-flop. No other thoughts seemed forth coming, you made your read and you were sticking with it to the river. I took this as you missed, didn’t care about, didn’t think about, or didn’t want to waste anymore energy on this tread and the other information presented went out the window. I am pointing out that there is more information then those two things and put together you can come up with 88 or 77 enough to play it like I suggested.

I agree with you that his pre-flop raise puts his range on TT+ 95% of the time if that is all the information you have but you have more. He didn’t cap and hero has AA, so I can’t heavily weight it to AA or KK. My range is more weighted to AKs – ATs, and JJ – 88. On the flop he makes the 3rd player cold call two bets twice, driving him out the second time. IMO if he had AKs – ATs he would not have capped the flop, but would have called the 3-bet in an attempt to keep in the third player.

My reasoning was that if he had the FD his first raise would have been to build the pot. With 3 players and having 35% equity this is smart but the second raise risks driving out the 3rd player and him now putting in 50% of the money with the same 35% equity. I took this as a defensive raise. So I am now discounting AKs – ATs and bringing back JJ – 77. I am including 88 and 77 because of the defensive raise and the fact that his hand is now good enough to cap with on the flop but not pre flop. I muddied the waters with my 78 comment. He would protect two pair this way but the pre-flop raise eliminates it.

With 88 and 77 now possible, I want more information to see if I am behind so I would bet out on the turn not c/r. If he calls I put him on JJ – 99 but if he raises then 88 and 77 are tops on my list. Without further reads I check/call the river but if I had a read I may fold the river unimproved.

Again, IMO the responses were incomplete and failed to take the later information into account. My take on the hand lead me to put enough weight on 88 and 77 to not risk a c/r on the turn. I gave the OP my opinion and explained why.