[DespotInExile]

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if in Hand 2 for example you can get someone to fold a hand like a pair of 7's or T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] even 3-5% of the time, that begins to have a quite significant impact on the equity valuations.

[/ QUOTE ]

I mostly agree with Nate in terms of betting the turn with weak made hands to avoid freecards (even at the risk of being checkraised by a LAG on a draw).

However, I dont think the specific rationale of folding a better hand that Nate quoted here makes sense. If you think you can only fold a better hand some miniscule portion of the time (e.g. 3-5%), given the very small pot size (e.g., 6.5 SBs), your bet on the turn has around 1/10th of a BB in fold equity. This doesnt move the needle at all.

I think Nate's first reason--namely that many villains will have up to 10 clean outs--is the reason to bet the turn on 4th street against all but the most aggressive and tricky opponents.

I cant tell you how many times my steal attempts on 4th street have crashed and burned on the river due to having given the freecard on the turn.