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Old 11-10-2007, 03:23 PM
aislephive aislephive is offline
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Default Re: Bottom set flop action deep 400nl

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there are a decent amount of big draws + villain would be less likely to raise a worse draw this deep

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I don't think many draws but the NFD can really be considered big. OESD + FD isn't really worth 200bbs here for villain. He is probably priced in to calling though, which isn't a good thing.

How likely villain is to raise various weakish draws like an OESD or bare medium/weak FD is pretty player dependent.

Also, our hand looks exactly like either top pair or a draw if we call, and villain probably expects us to fold a lot of our range to a turn bet. Of those big draws, a lot of them will commit on a blank turn where our equity is much greater. FWIW, I would likely fold to a big turn bet if the flush completes.

This is all assuming villain is a good solid tag who can read hands and situations well, of course.
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