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Old 10-27-2007, 02:51 AM
Gurravasa Gurravasa is offline
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Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: what used to Denmark before we beat them
Posts: 1,307
Default Re: Check behind turn?

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This can just be a valuebet against the poorest online players.
What decent player calls river with 88-JJ getting 7.25:1.
What can he ever put you on that he thinks that he beat.Maybe 88-99.
If you get called here by a TAG you´re losing 90% of the time.

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Naaah, I think you'll get looked up by alot of 88-JJ. I think it's close but against your average villain I believe there's some value in betting.

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You still need to get called by a worse hand more than 50% of the times.And I seriously doubt that anyone with a brain would check/call 88 or 99 on this board.If I were villain and had a high Ax hand I would go for a checkraise like always.If I had a low Ax hand I would check/call.Value betting thin is a dangerous habit against most better players and very exploitable.

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We don't have to get called 50%, we only have to be good 50% when he calls. Looking at villains range he should have 88-JJ much more often than a hand that beats us. Often he'll fold to our bet, but when he calls we're good more than 50% for sure.

Also we have no indication that villain is one of the better players. Since he plays 3/6 at a nitty site that use the dealt method for calculating rakeback I'll asume he's playing a pretty straighforward game until proof of anything else.
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