[ConstantineX]

I was one of the more skeptical posters on the recent "Depression" rhetoric and the general paranoia of many Misean theories. I have generally believed that we use sound monetary policy.

But different readings lately have convinced me that the US is going to fall into a recession, possibly a very deep one in 2008. I am also not confident in Americans' standard of living because the Fed seems very likely to capitulate AGAIN on interest rates as futures are already pricing in a rate cut which I have been convinced will lead to stagflation. There seems to be a formula for sound central monetary policy but it seems that political considerations will trump holding firm yet again. There was alot, perhaps unprecedented, mal-investment in housing.

I think I"ll expound more later in the evening.