Re: 55 UTG
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I don't think any of you saying fold can come up with any sort of logic to justify that decision. "Standard" does not count as logic.
The only logic posted so far is that you get to see another orbital. Yes, another orbital during which you bleed off 2200 chips, possibly move up another level, and are only 32% to be dealt a PP better than 55.
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ok, so roughly, if everyone is calling TT+AK (i'm not saying this is true, but just as an example of a very tight table - then we'd be getting called 27.5% and winning blinds 72.5%. of the 27.5% we're called our equity is 31.3%.
Sooo 11.2k stack 2200 in the pot,
(.725 * 2200) + [.275*(24600*.313 - 11200)]
(1650) + [.275 * -3500]
1650 - 962.5
=
+687.5 chips/+.3M
I think thats the most optimistic we can be right?
I'm not positive that a fold is right - but it doesnt seem like a good spot to me - but i guess if it was guaranteed to be +.3M i'd shove, but i think its more of a best case scenario.
and edited on to compare, if calling ranges are changed to: AQ+,88+,
(.595 * 2200) + [.405*(24600*.342 - 11200)]
1309 - 1128= +180 chips, less than .1M
in this case i definitely think we should pass it up.
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