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Old 11-30-2007, 06:42 PM
CarlSpackler CarlSpackler is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Posts: 1,022
Default Re: When Bookies Make Big Line Errors

I'll address a few things here:

-- I expect him to have no problem staying liquid. A large chunk of his clientele are car salesmen, who are notorious for being degenerate gamblers. None of his clients are sharps to the best of my knowledge. He gives out horrible odds on all teasers except for the 2 teamers. And while he often sets some lines poorly, imo, he has excellent bankroll management. He's only been doing this for a few years, but he's never not collected $$$ from losers. Plenty of incidents where they've paid late, but he's always collected. He's very smart about how he does this.

-- I'm not going to get stiffed. I know him pretty well. We've been in the same fantasy football league for like 5 years. My largest play with him for the year has been 4 units. It's not like I'm going to drop 20 units on this play. I'm thinking 4 - 6 max. And he has the right to cancel my bet before kickoff.

-- Up to this point, the worst line I've seen him have was BYU -11 vs. AF, when it closed at -14 I think. I hammered it, was paid, no questions asked. (Not that the bad line mattered in that game anyways). And I know a couple guys who bet AF through him, lol.

-- I literally got him his most profitable client. My friend, who bets much bigger than me, is a Dr. Bob disciple and was sick of the line moves on line, and started using my local through me several weeks ago. I've been collecting from (he just went pretty much busto last week)/and paying him, basicallly doing all the legwork.

-- I've put myself in his shoes, and if I made this mistake and someone bet it, I wouldn't be happy about it, but I would understand that I was responsible. Also, it's not like I've been crushing him all season. This is my first year with him, and if that was the case, then I would almost certainly tell him about the error, because that would be the most +EV move. I'm actually down with him, and I'm not going to break him playing this game (if I win, it's not like this is a sure thing! There's significant risk because I'm not going to middle this.), I'll still be down with him for the year actually.
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