Re: preflop
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I make the plays I do, I dont claim to know that all of them are +EV. I know some of them are. Like expanding my OTB range quite a bit past Stox proposed range or calling suited junk in BB getting 5:1 or opening KJo UTG. These are all plays I have been told several times CAN NOT be +EV and yet they are all with a winrate significant larger than 0 on a 98% level...
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yeah, this is my kind of evidence. much better than "cuz stox says so".
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On a serious note. This is another spot where we either cant extract the empirical reults or will just never get enough observations.
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if we never get enough observations to determine the correct play in a particular situation, that means it doesn't affect your winrate and so it doesn't matter what you do in that situation.
more precisely, if two good players with 300k+ hands each who follow different strategies in a particular situation compare their results and the difference is not statistically significant then either:
1. the ev for the strategies are almost the same, OR
2. one strategy is better, but the situation happens so rarely that it doesn't affect your winrate in any significant way.
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