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Old 10-12-2007, 04:15 PM
electrical electrical is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: chicago
Posts: 650
Default Re: $1-$2 Stud Hi, is pushing like this the right play?

Raise Fourth. You're in a limped pot with a solid draw against several opponents. Think of a couple of scenarios:

A) you call a small bet and the third man calls behind you.
B) you raise and both opponents call.
C) you raise and only the initial bettor calls.
D) you raise, the guy behind folds and the aggressor three-bets.

With A, you have to eventually out-draw two opponents to win a small pot, and you will not be getting appropriate odds to draw to the naked flush on Fifth.

With B, you may get a free card on Five if you brick, and having demonstrated strength you may win the pot if you make a small pair in-sight. In any case, you will have odds to draw, and you get more money in the pot with good equity.

With C, you will almost certainly get a free card if you want it, it becomes more likely that you can win with an Ace or King for one pair, and you have odds to draw to your flush, with only one player to beat whatever your final hand. Note that the 4th street profit (opponents'money) in the pot (two small bets) is exactly the same as in A, but you only have to beat one guy to take it.

With D, you have odds to peel for one more bet, and if you brick Five, you will be getting almost correct immediate odds to draw to the naked flush, and the implied odds may make that a good gamble if you think your man will pay off a raise. If things break as they did in the actual hand, you can stand almost any action.

As played, pairing your door on Five might make one player fold, but once he calls, the third man can now call in position (while that's a mistake, it's arguably a small mistake). Having made a pair in sight, you will probably be out of position for the rest of the hand, which makes your opponents' play more uncertain -- can they beat trips or are they drawing or have they tripped themselves or are they drawing with two pair trying to fill or are they unobservant or do they think you're weak or...

If you call a bet on Four, you encourage others to call behind you, meaning you have to hit your draw to beat a larger field, and you will not have odds to draw on the big bet streets. Additionally, you expose yourself to an implied odds position since there will be more hands drawing to beat your eventual hand.

If your flush draw was all little cards, I could see peeling because there are more ways to make a solid compound draw (another little card for a pair+fd or straight+flush draws) where your eventual pat hand can stand up to more players. Here, your secondary draw is just a couple of big cards, which derive their value from making top pair against one opponent.

I like a raise on Four for a jillion reasons.
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