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Old 07-08-2007, 12:48 AM
ChipSpeak ChipSpeak is offline
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 432
Default Re: Laying down AK in a tournament from a Poker Pro Magazine Article

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Of course the 57% is equity vs a range. Thats its equity vs 77+,AT+,KQ or the top 10% of hands. But against the top 5% of hands 99+,AQ+, i'm just under 50%. Which range should i assign to him? I prefer to be the aggressor instead of having to guess what someone has (which of course is difficult). And i only brought up the recent cash because i gained an enormous number of chips in spots where i thought my opponent should have folded but just couldn't find the fold button. Which is why i'm okay with people playing AK like its a made hand . Good luck.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think you are perhaps not emphasizing the situation as much as others. We are not sitting high on the hog with chips. As Dave mentioned, opportunities are going to be at a premium with the avg at 9bb's. This only increases the odds that
1: Many more pots will be opened before action gets to us when we have position.
2: We will be looked up/repopped light on steal attempts, thus reducing the advantage of being first in.

We are going to have to make a move sometime very soon, it will probly be with less holdings than this and we may very well not be first in the pot. This is not tossing a coin, this is well thought out.

We are going to have to chip up considerably to be positioned for a strong run at the win. Considering we have virtually eliminated the 2 hands that kill us, the possible hands that we are dominating our opponent and the situation we are in, I would say this is +$EV, and that is the bottom line.
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