[Post-Oak]

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Even though Mosley has the handspeed and technique edge, he's fundamentally an aggressor. He also isn't the ridiculous combination-punching machine he was a couple of divisions lower. He hasn't really shown one-punch power above 135. Torres and Judah are much bigger punchers, and even though they hurt Cotto, they couldn't finish him. I'd be surprised by an early Mosley KO.

Mosley isn't Mayweather- he's going to come forward, since that's just what he does, and he's going to get hit to the body, and he's probably going to get hit to the body a lot. Can Mosley, at 36, post-BALCO, take those shots and still be effective in the second half of the fight, or is he going to get broken down like everybody else Cotto has faced? That's the theme of this fight IMO.

I don't begin to know how to objectively cap something like that, since Mosley hasn't faced a sick body puncher since at least 2000 (if ever, I don't know all of the early names he's beaten). Cotto has fought A-/B+ level guys with much better handspeed and beaten them anyway.

Cotto -150, which is 60% to win, doesn't seem that far out of line. Put a gun to my head, and I'm taking Cotto -150, but it's not a fight I'm looking to jump on heavy since the central theme is so hard to cap.

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For me, you put it perfectly. This is exactly how I feel about the fight. I suspect that Mosely won't be able to handle the pace and body attack that Cotto will bring, and whether or not he can will decide the fight. Can Cotto impose his will and force Mosely to fight at his pace?

Because Mosely has not fought anyone who fights like Cotto in recent memory, I find it hard to handicap this fight. I can't remember him ever facing a young, strong, aggressive fighter who will force the pace and pound the body. I am not gonna touch either side.