Re: Read this before starting a \"Who Do I pick in Survivor\" Thread
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thremp,
Interesting. I'll take that into account from now on. Thanks.
Your concept is pretty high-variance for an event that occurs once a year, though.
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Umm... Your variance comment means exactly nothing. If you take picks that someone else takes you will never win a league. At best you can chop it up. Here I'll do some basic math from my example.
Two outcomes:
1) You go into week two 70% of time with 100 people (We'll assume everyone else wins which is worst case for calcs). Your EV is ~.70
2) You go into week two 65% of the time with 70 people. Your EV is ~.98
Variance isn't really much higher at all. You're out of the pool 7% more often, but have increased your EV 40%.
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