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Old 03-25-2007, 10:29 PM
bigpooch bigpooch is offline
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Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Hong Kong
Posts: 1,330
Default Re: pl 5cd SnG HU line check

You probably should fold.

As mentioned, you were probably beat before the draw to
start with. Your raise predraw was correct, since you
should have the best hand predraw with a probability of
930521/1533939=0.606622 (and some players might muck 66 in
the BB here) and you are risking 375T to win 225T (relevant
ratio is 0.625).

After the draw, your opponent makes an unusual CR (it's
usually incorrect versus a 3 card-draw unless you value bet
hands such as KKA or AA often; it's PL, so you can't value
bet as often as in limit). It's very unlikely a typical
opponent will be bluffing here, and it's also likely that
he has aces up or better. Fortunately, you caught an ace,
so the laydown should be easier. That being said, you
would have to weigh the chances your opponent has kings-up
and the chances that he would make a CR bluff as well. If
there is any reasonable chance he could have one of those
type of hands, you should call.

Your all-in play is a clear theoretical error as even if
your opponent's legitimate hands are kings-up or better, he
is a favorite to have the better hand against 555 postdraw.
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