Re: AA OTB
If you are pretty much just going on stats, I think your river fold is -EV. Given just the stats, I think you're good more than 1/20 times.
Sure MP is fairly passive after the flop, but that could mean a lot of things. Passive/aggresive postflop doesn't say much. It's not a useful number in the same way that preflop stats are useful.
The reason is that a player can have a very high AF and almost never bluff, or a pretty low AF and bluff very frequently, but rarely valuebet. Players may never bet 2ndpair or a draw, but always play top pair superfast even when their hand is prob no good. A player's AF is the finished product, but how it was made tells the real story. This is why individual reads are infinitely better than PAHUD stats.
Also, players will play more passive/aggressive depending on the pot size, so MP could be getting overaggro with KJ. He may also just be pretty damn sure his AK is good, and be a poor handreader. Since you are a good handreader, you can say to yourself "the only hand that really makes sense to have me beaten here is KQ, and MAYBE 99. There's a small chance he has AK, but I feel good about very heavily discounting QQ, and KK"
CO's call on the turn could be a ton of hands, and so can his river call, so worrying about overcalling here may be an unfounded concern. Afterall, he is playing 33% in a fullgame, so he could easily have QJ, QT, J9, JT, KJ, KT, any suited king etc. etc.
Remember, he may also be reacting to the size of the pot. It is usually wrong to give bad players credit for making strategic adjustments, but one thing that they WILL do semi reliably is think "omg money I have to call"
Make the nine a deuce, and you should be more inclined to fold the river. The nine just puts of too many pair+gutshot combos into CO's range.
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