[Scorpion Man]

1) You are a standup guy for disclosing the adversity of not fitting at that job...I am a big fan of candor and disclosing weaknesses.

2) You write this:
in terms of prediction, they are pretty worthless. but ironically, the use of the fundamental drivers that come from understanding what is trying to be conveyed by predictive models can be hugely useful in trading. especially where there are non-profit seeking participants.

the fed, though, does a pretty good job as far as managemnet goes and they use predictive models to think about this stuff, so that is aplus for "economists."


I am not sure I understand...to the extent that understanding the efforts of predictive models are useful in trading...doesn't it follow that they themselves need to be predictive? How can understanding what is being attempted by non-predictive economists lead to a predictive strategy?

SM