[ev_slave]

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2) Calculate your pot odds. example cont.: The pot at the start of the turn is $8 and villain makes a 1/2 pot size bet of $4 giving you 3:1 pot odds ($4 to win $12).

3) Calculate the difference between what the pot is and what it would need to be to call profitably based on pure pot odds alone. example cont.: You need to win another $4 from villain to call profitably which means that villain would have to either make or call a bet of $4 on the river if the flush comes in.


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Can you please explain how to figure out how much you will need to call or bet after calling with implied odds? I think it should be simple math but I am having trouble.

thanks!

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This is an important thing, but I think you're approaching it wrong. In the example given above, you're getting 3:1 but you need 4:1, you should ask "can I make at least $4 more on the river?" If the answer is yes, the draw is profitable. Once you get to the river, things are different. Either you missed, and there's no need to worry about that $4, or you hit. When you hit, the $4 is now meaningless. Sure, to justify your past play, you need to make $4, but that was due to a probability thing... when you're trying to pick how much to bet on the river, you've hit your draw already (i.e. with probability = 1)so what you invested on the turn is a sunk cost and no longer figures into your decision making. Your new objective is to maximize your winnings NOW, even though making $4 would make your past play justifiable.

In other words, say you check/call with your flush on the turn, and you hit on the river. Now you figure that if you check, your opponent will always bet $6, but will fold to a raise. However, if you bet $15, you figure your opponent will be suspicious and call about 50% of the time. IT IS WRONG TO CHECK TO GUARANTEE THAT YOU MAKE YOUR "REQUIRED" $4. You bet the $15 because it has a higher expectation.

The take home: implied odds are important when you're making forward looking decisions based on the probability of the card, once there're no more cards to look forward to, forget your implied odds calcs... maximize your EV.