Re: Overbetting: When to use it?
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Smart Money: I like the bluff, but I think you can get away with a smaller overbet.
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Yes. Good point. There is an optimal overbet calculated by:
(p(villain folding) * $25) - (p(villain holds a 7) * $overbet)
If we bet too little, it decreases the probability of the villain folding a split pot, but it also reduces our loss when we are beat and vice versa.
However, when the probability of the villain having a hand that beats us is very small (as in this example) then it pays to keep the overbet large.
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