Re: Giving the long dollar trade another try
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Not stupid, yet definitely not long-term +EV. Shorting before mid-March 2000 in any size requires recklessness, strong belief in prediction, or both. Market participants can maintain an irrational belief about price for a long time.
Initiating shorts in March/early April of 2000 is simple because price and volume is speaking clearly.
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Mr. Now, I'll offer one piece of advice about trading and then I'll fade to black:
You have got to get your head out of those theory trading books and quit quoting Covel, Tharp, Douglas, Elder, etc. Kind of like the way people have to finally put down the Sklansky, Harrington, etc. and simply learn to play poker. Yes, books have some good ideas and you may think quoting them on a message board makes you look smart, but you can't be so dogmatic. You keep spewing all these great academic theories on trading, but many just don't work in the real world. You have to find your own way, not the way of the authors who wrote the books. Try an original thought rather than quoting others.
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