Another Example:
John has been running really bad lately. But last week a friend gave him a rabbit's foot and since then, he's been on a tremendous heater. He won +50 big bets 3 days in a row and each day he had the rabbit's foot on him. Now John wants to move up in limits to recoup the previous months losses quicker. Should he do it? How should he decide? What method would better serve him? To flip a coin? Or to use irrational thought?
Either the rabbit's foot has helped him win, or it hasn't and John has just been experiencing a coincidence over the last 3 days.
Illogical thought would lead him to believe he should definitely move up in limit. After all, here's a guy who hasn't won in months and ever since he got the rabbit's foot, he can't seem to lose. So there must be something to it!
Again, rest assured there are people who base their decisions on things very similar to this. Do you deny that someone who concludes (through illogical thought), that their rabbit's foot is lucky, has better than a 50% chance of being wrong?
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