View Single Post
  #4  
Old 11-22-2007, 02:04 PM
sir.Oliver sir.Oliver is offline
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 16
Default Re: $114: AT on bubble...to raise or not to raise

Moves
-----
a) fold; SB folds.
b) push and win against BB
c) push and lose against BB
d) push and win against SB
e) push and lose against SB
f) push and pick up blinds
g) raise 3BB; fold to SB-push
h) raise 3BB; call BB-push
i) raise 3BB; pick up blinds


EV(ICM)
-------
a) 0.2996
b) 0.3556
c) 0.2407
d) 0.3972
e) 0.0000
f) 0.3139
g) 0.2873
h) like b&C
i) like f


Assumptations
-------------
BB would call you with {66+,A7s+,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,ATo+,KQo} for about 15% of the time -> 43:57 underdog.
SB would call you with {TT+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+,KQo} for about 10% of the time -> 34:66 underdog.
Let's say both would push the 3BB-bet from you with those hands above too and you call the BB, but fold to the SB.


Total EV(ICM)
-------------
EV(push): 0.2912 (=0.75*0.3139+0.15*[0.43*0.3556+0.57*0.2407]+0.10*[0.34*0.3972+0.66*0.000])
EV(fold): 0.2996
EV(r3BB): 0.3063 (=0.75*0.3139+0.15*[0.43*0.3556+0.57*0.2407]+0.10*0.2873)




With those assumptations above a normal bet (3BB) gives the most value. But if you are feeling you have to push-or-fold, you should fold.
Reply With Quote